Sample Size and Methodology
- Automotive research firm Strategic Vision surveyed over 200 current luxury car owners across North America and Europe
- Participants included distribution across gender, generations, and income levels
- Simple question: if Apple produces an electric car, would you choose it or a Tesla?
Over 56% selected the non-existent Apple EV. This enthusiasm exists before Apple confirming literally any details or production plans beyond rumors and prototypes. Truly astonishing.
Now to be fair, Strategic Vision acknowledges the minimal sample size and narrow demographic range limit definitiveness. And stated preferences don‘t always match actual purchase behavior when new products launch.
Still, the strength of preference for Apple here suggests that once Tim Cook starts rolling (pun intended) vehicles off the production line, Elon Musk faces grave danger. Let‘s look deeper at why before detailing how I expect this competition to play out by 2030 based on Apple‘s track record.
Why Apple Over Tesla? Brand Loyalty and Trust
We own iPhones, not Teslas. Apple has built durable, enthusiasm consumer loyalty over decades by releasing gorgeous, functional products matched by few. Its brand commands premium pricing power and associations like:
- Innovation
- Seamless ecosystems
- Privacy
- Luxury
- StatusPeople trust Apple to deliver high-quality, category-redefining goods and pay accordingly. Whether computers, phones, headphones, or watches, Apple dominates each sector through combining hardware, software, services, and marketing into a polished package.
Consider the iPhone juggernaut:
| Year | Global Smartphone Market Share |
|---|---|
| 2007 | 0% |
| 2008 | 11.3% |
| 2015 | 14.8% |
| 2020 | 15.2% |
Within five years, iPhones totally reshaped mobile phones and remain the premier brand worldwide.
Why expect different with Apple Cars? Tim Cook can funnel unlimited R&D billions into EV tech. Rumors suggest an "iPhone moment" type radical reinvention of interior interfaces, self-driving systems, and range capabilities awaits.
Basically: past performance suggests strong future results once Apple starts manufacturing vehicles.
Meanwhile, Tesla maintains leadership…for now.
How Can Tesla Retain Market Superiority?
While Apple lacks a real car today, Elon Musk enjoys that present advantage. He could pursue two strategies to widen the gap before Apple begins competing directly:
- Launch new models and variants rapidly
- Refresh Model S interior and Plaid variant, reducing delivery times
- Start Cybertruck and Roadster production
- Keep incrementally improving range, performance, and charging speed
- Cement autonomy lead
- Expand FSD beta testing, release improved iterations
- Accumulate real-world driving data
- Lobby governments to approve autonomous operation
If Tesla provides vehicles matching Apple‘s eventual technical abilities NOW while coasting the brand prestige of being the established EV leader, Tim Cook will find sales harder to swipe.
But we saw with Blackberry what happens when Apple flexes its muscles. Let‘s forecast how this race plays out.
By 2030: Crushing the Competition
History suggests in 5-10 years, Apple siphons away existing Tesla buyers while lapping conventional automakers still flipping their business models to electric.
Review EV market share projections from Bloomberg:
Notice Apple stealing around 15% by 2028 while Tesla slips under 10%? Seems accurate based on Apple immediately controlling double-digit percentages across earlier new categories like smartphones and tablets.
And with autonomous driving on the horizon, Apple can again exploit its superior software ecosystems to deliver a better self-driving experience than Tesla‘s more insular, incomplete in-car solution. Don‘t be shocked when Apple leaps past Waymo/Cruise as well within autonomous taxi services by 2030 via usual ruthless execution.
The Strategic Vision survey leaves little doubt consumers desire Apple‘s market entry and expect revolutionary products. Elon Musk should savor leading luxury EV sales…while he still can.
Tim Cook prepares to dominate yet another industry!
Remember when Apple crushed Sony Walkmans with the iPad? Or Nokia cell phones with the iPhone? Tesla risks joining that scrapheap unless Musk makes serious strategic countermoves immediately. Think carefully Mr. CEO!
Hope you enjoyed this breakdown. Please reach out with any questions or thoughts. Until next time!
