As a tech-focused investor, I closely track Tesla‘s (TSLA) earnings reports each quarter. The company‘s financials offer unparalleled insights into the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) market. In this post, let‘s take a comprehensive look at Tesla‘s earnings reporting process, metrics, and analysis through the lens of a Wall Street analyst.
What Do Quarterly Earnings Reports Entail?
Public companies like Tesla trade shares on stock exchanges, which requires financial transparency through regular SEC filings like the 10-Q and 10-K.
The 10-Q report is filed quarterly and includes unaudited financial statements like the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These documents offer a treasure trove of data to gauge the company‘s financial health.
In contrast, the 10-K contains audited annual statements to give shareholders an accurate picture of yearly performance. Companies also publish voluntary earnings press releases and host update calls to discuss results.
As an analyst, I pay close attention to metrics like revenue, EPS, margins, expenses, working capital metrics and debt levels across these filings to benchmark performance.
When Has Tesla Reported Earnings Over the Years?
Over the past five years, Tesla has followed a clear template for informing shareholders on financial performance:
| Reporting Quarter | Typical Earnings Release Date | Days After Quarter Close |
| Q1 | 20th April | 20 days |
| Q2 | 20th July | 20 days |
| Q3 | 20th October | 20 days |
| Q4 | 25th January | 45 days |
There is usually a 1-2 week window between the end of a quarter and reporting date, as finance teams finalize numbers, accountants review and executives provide sign-off before regulatory submission and press release.
Evaluating Tesla‘s Historical Financial Performance
As a tech company investor, I believe long-term financial profile analysis is crucial before making investment decisions. Let‘s analyze Tesla‘s income statement metrics over the last 5 years:
| Metric (in $ billions) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Revenue | 21.46 | 24.58 | 31.54 | 53.82 | 65.06* |
| Operating Income | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 5.89 | 9.25* |
| Net Income | -0.05 | -0.06 | 0.64 | 5.49 | 7.49* |
*annualized year-to-date over first 3 quarters
A few interesting trends stand out – strong consistent revenue growth, widening profit margins indicating scalability and exceptional bottomline growth in recent years as operating leverage kicks in.
Factors Impacting Tesla‘s Performance
Of course, financial statements represent the quantitative view. As an investor you also need to understand the business dynamics driving the numbers using a strategic lens.
Tesla‘s exponential EV demand growth, expanding margins despite supply chain issues, and astute cost control have acted as tailwinds recently. However, an economic slowdown can quickly flip growth assumptions.
Using a SWOT framework, Tesla exhibits strengths in brand, vertical integration and technology leadership – but faces weakness from EV competition, margin pressures and macro uncertainty. The cost structure also remains GDP+ sensitive.
Modeling Tesla‘s Next Earnings Report
For Tesla‘s upcoming Q4 2022 earnings, consensus estimates per analyst average call for:
- Revenue: $24.5 billion
- EPS: $1.13
However, as an investor building my own model, I expect to see:
- Base Case Revenue: $23.5 billion
- Bear Case Revenue: $22 billion
- Bull Case Revenue: $25 billion
On EPS, I estimate $1.20 on cost optimization efforts. But global instability makes margins potentially volatile – so the bear case could be sub-$1 EPS as well if demand suffers unexpectedly.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Analyzing Tesla‘s documented earnings report history, financial statements, business dynamics and outlook suggests:
- Past growth trajectory has been impeccable
- Quantifiable downside risks exist amidst uncertainty
- Company remains well-positioned structurally for long-term gains
So pay close attention to revenue drivers, margin trends and management commentary when Tesla reports Q4 results by January 25. The devil lies in the details even for a remarkable company like Tesla!
